Andrey Zubov: Armed Groups May Start Fighting For Power In Russian Federation Streets

• 8.11.2022, 8:51

There is less and less chance of a peaceful collapse of the regime.

Two days ago, The Times reported that Putin's two closest KGB associates, Nikolai Patrushev and Aleksandr Bortnikov, emboldened him into attacking Ukraine on February 24, Russian historian and philosopher Andrey Zubov wrote on Facebook.

This information doesn't strike me as unbelievable. Most likely, it is close to the truth. The old KGB generals, like Putin, considered the collapse of the USSR to be "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the twentieth century" and Ukraine to be an artificial country, the creation of an incomprehensible "Kremlin dreamer" Lenin. And they decided to start correcting the catastrophe with Ukraine. "Special operation" - even in name - is a typical KGB undertaking. Putin, as the real ruler of Russia, understood better than they did the risks and the unfavourable international situation after Biden's victory in the US presidential election, but he allowed himself to believe that the "walk" along the Dnieper would take 2-3 days, 1-2 weeks at the most. There is plenty of evidence of this.

However, as we know, things turned out very differently and the KGB and its dreamers generals found themselves in no favour with Putin, while his "faithful soldiers" whom he allowed to build private armies to create multiple pillars of his autocracy - Prigozhin and Kadyrov - turned out to be in favour. They did their best - they threw the Wagner units and Chechens into the midst of the fighting, Prigozhin recruited "volunteers" in prisons. The KGB hated both of them for a long time, as they were considerable forces alternative to the "office". Now, after the failure of the "advisers", Kadyrov and Prigozhin have pushed the KGB aside.

No longer just "loyal soldiers," they are increasingly asserting themselves as independent politicians of the first level, as possible successors to Putin who is losing the war, and even more so as a force that can replace the archaic KGB with its failed poisonings and failed advice.

To prove that they can, Prigozhin came out of the shadows and publicly declared himself the commander of the Wagner PMC, and even opened a department store with the letter "W" in St. Petersburg to let people realize that he knows not only how to shoot, but also how to create something useful. At the same time his "young men" are fighting to the death near Bakhmut, and that seems to be the only place on the Russian-Ukrainian front where the Russians are advancing, albeit slowly. Kadyrov and Prigozhin are already dismissing and appointing front commanders. General Surovikin is said to be their man.

However, it is certain that the army is not happy with such self-appointed commanders as "Putin's cook" and Chechnya's chief. The army generals believe, not without reason, that Putin has sent into battle a poorly trained army with mostly obsolete weapons and, moreover, few in number, against the strongest opponent, without thinking twice. Perhaps some of them are also aware of the fact that they are losing not only because the army has been robbed by the rear rats with the permission of the supreme power, but because the war itself is pointless and aimless. It is not defence of the fatherland, but pure aggression. That is why the generals and officers of the Russian army, suffering defeat after defeat, are brushing off insulting accusations of unprofessionalism, instead blaming Patrushev, Bortnikov, the KGB, Kadyrov and Prigozhin.

A victorious war unites the elite around the leader, a failed war, a war of aggression, always leads to a split in the elite, a search for someone to blame, mutual accusations, the withdrawal of everyone or almost everyone from the leader, and ultimately, the collapse of the political regime.

As I see it, this is exactly what is happening in Russia right now. The KGB is hated in Russia, Prigozhin and Kadyrov are unpopular. The army is traditionally a respected institution in Russia, but now it is ruining thousands of young lives for a song, and the respect it enjoys is vanishing very quickly.

I do not rule out the possibility that the backroom battle will escalate over the coming weeks or months into a fight in the streets and squares between these three heavily armed groups. I would very much hate to see that happen. It would be better if the collapse of the regime were peaceful. But there is less and less chance of that happening.